Falling Into Power

America has a long history of accidental and unexpected presidents.

“Ability is of little account without opportunity.”

— Napoleon Bonaparte

“I would rather be lucky than good.”

— Pitcher Vernon Louis “Lefty” Gomez

The indomitable leader of TV’s The A-Team, Colonel John “Hannibal” Smith, was a man of few words, but when he spoke, they counted.  After the A-Team’s initial scheme floundered, they improvised, and upon success, Hannibal said, “I love it when a plan comes together,” as if it were his design all along.  I am getting that same impression from the Democratic Party today.  

Rumors of Joe Biden’s senescence have persisted since the Democratic primaries of 2019. But the advent of COVID, enabling the so-called basement campaign, kept him from public view. Once President, a dedicated staff, co-opted media, his Vice President, and Edith Bolling Wilson redux Jill Biden were all willing to cocoon the President from prying eyes and keep his frailties under wraps.  

So when these whispers of a doddering old man arose again in Biden’s 2024 reelection bid, it was decided to show the world that Joe was fine by moving the first presidential debate with Donald Trump from September to June.  Biden’s horrible performance clearly showed the ravages of age, and the pressure became inexorable for a candidate switch.  Had the debate occurred in September, it would have been too late for a replacement.  Had Biden dropped out in the summer of 2023, enabling an actual primary, the new nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, would have had to endure the slings and arrows of her fellow Democrats.  Previous statements, such as advocacy for an open border, bail for BLM rioters, a ban on fracking, or single-payer healthcare, would have been scrutinized and picked over.  But the Democrats enjoy the incredible timing of providing a new, fresh candidate 90 days before the election.  It is like a plan coming together.  

We shall yet see whether the joy, smiles, and laughter of August turn to November tears, but for now, it looks prescient.  Harris is not the only presumptive President to fall into office. 

Most presidents have had to endure a process of toil and drudgery to get to the highest government position in our Republic.  Some, like Washington, Grant, and Eisenhower, had to win wars.  Others like Richard Nixon had to serve a stint in the House of Representatives and then as Vice President for eight years and lose two elections before winning the presidency. Eight vice presidents received top jobs due to the death of their bosses. Yet others found themselves on a glide path into the White House, having nothing to do with the mortality of their presidents. We shall focus on three of those.  

Grover Cleveland

In 1882, Grover Cleveland was the unmarried, 44-year-old mayor of Buffalo, New York. His only public role before that was as local sheriff for three years.  Cleveland won his mayoralty with an impressive 15,000 to 11,000 vote tally.  As the New York Governor’s job was opening the same year, Cleveland’s reputation for integrity and reform caught the eye of Democratic political kingpin Daniel Manning.  Working behind the scenes, Manning engineered Cleveland’s ascension as the Democratic standard bearer for New York Governor.  Facing an opponent, Charles Folger, tainted by association with spoils system politicians such as Roscoe Conkling, Cleveland easily won election to the state house with over 500,000 votes.  And then, within 18 months, the allure of the presidency beckoned.  

Neither a favorite of party bosses nor a war hero, Cleveland had an unassailable record of public integrity that contrasted with the government corruption prevalent in post-Bellum America.  His fiscal conservatism and reformist tendencies got him the Democratic nomination for President in 1884.  Again, once those using the government as their personal piggy banks were cleared, there was just this one guy left.  Cleveland’s opponent, James G Blaine, was also tarnished with corruption, and a breakaway faction of reformist Republicans called Mugwumps crossed party lines to elevate Cleveland to the White House—Mayor of a mid-sized city to President in just three years.  

Woodrow Wilson

From the election of Lincoln in 1860 to that of FDR in 1932, the Republicans were the dominant party of the Union.  There were two exceptions—the first we have seen with Cleveland.  Yet, whereas Cleveland was propelled by the greed of the Gilded Age politicians, Woodrow Wilson’s ascent was entirely due to the egotism of a single individual.  Teddy Roosevelt served nearly eight years as President, from the assassination of William McKinley in 1901 to 1908.  Such was his popularity that he designated the next president by throwing his support behind his War Secretary, William Taft, who was duly elected.  

Yet Roosevelt was not keen on many of Taft’s decisions, and decided to run for a third term as a corrective.  That was Roosevelt’s justification for setting aside his 1905 pledge to not seek another term.  Another explanation was that Roosevelt was a bit of a megalomaniac. As the old phrase goes, Teddy wanted to be the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral.  Roosevelt stood out in a profession that attracts egotists and attention hounds.  He also exhibited the worst tendencies of progressivism, which is that they can make better decisions for others than individuals can make on their own.  He issued more executive orders during his administration than all the preceding presidents combined.  

Failing to wrest the Republican Party nomination from incumbent Taft, Roosevelt decided to form his own party. The Democratic nominee was Woodrow Wilson, who was just two years into his governorship of New Jersey. Aside from this post, Wilson had spent the entirety of his career in the academy.  Not surprisingly, Taft’s and Roosevelt’s combined vote total exceeded Wilson’s by over 1 million votes.  However, as it was split, Wilson received a plurality of the popular vote, and given that the GOP fissures went state by state, Wilson was able to win a large number of the electoral college.  If not for Teddy Roosevelt’s thirst for power and attention, it is highly likely that the incumbent Taft, who was not unpopular, would have won reelection. Wilson, if remembered at all, would have been the short-term, pompous Governor of New Jersey.  

And all that followed, ranging from injecting new forms of progressivism into the body politic to government overreach during World War I, to Wilson’s racism, and after his stroke, his wife’s running of the executive branch, would have been avoided.  

Gerald Ford

Ford is the only person ever to serve as president without being on a major party ticket.  After Richard Nixon won his landslide election in 1972, charges of malfeasance were raised against his Vice president, Spiro Agnew, who was forced to resign.  Wishing to replace Agnew with one of the straightest of straight arrows, Nixon chose Ford, a boy scout no less back when being such was a stand-in for honesty and integrity and not exclusionary patriarchy.  When the Watergate scandal overtook Nixon, his resignation put Ford into the White House, with no primary and general elections.  

A contention could be made that Harris’ record would indicate achievement rather than good fortune.  Her staffing of local government roles around San Francisco and Sacramento, eight years as California Attorney General, and two in the US Senate would seem to designate as much.  Her record is on par with Barack Obama’s, and Donald Trump had no governmental role prior to his 2016 election.  However, Obama had to overcome a bruising primary with Hillary Clinton, the 2008 Democratic favorite.  Trump had to vanquish an entire trove of GOP hopefuls to become the 2016 GOP standard bearer. If anything, Trump’s Republican competition this year was more formidable, and yet his securing of the nomination was easier. Harris’ path contains no such journey in 2024. 

As for her selection as Vice President, that too was providential.  Biden, then losing the 2020 primary, made a vow in March of that year to put a woman on the ticket. His pledge was followed by a concerted campaign by several Democrats, such as Senator Amy Klobuchar, stating that the VP should also be of color.  The George Floyd riots that exploded in May of 2020 and their racial overtones meant that essentially whatever Biden had in mind was going to be defined by these narrow parameters, and he winnowed the list to four.  For various reasons, the others were not serious choices for Biden, so the bottom of the ticket fell to Harris.  

Just as there is rarely a single reason someone gets elected president, there is rarely a single explanation for getting to be a nominee.  Did Trump pick JD Vance because he is young, Mid-Western, working class, a US Senator, a successful author, or a MAGA adherent? Probably a bit of all these things.  Did Harris choose Tim Walz as her running mate because he is midwestern, a progressive, a gun owner, a former national guardsman, and comfortable as an attack dog?   

But as we have seen, there are times in which fate seemingly parts the political seas for an individual to ascend to the highest office in the land. Of all of Harris’ breaks, one of the greatest is that Donald J Trump is on the other side of the contest.  His only election was against Hillary Clinton, a thoroughly terrible candidate and odious person.  His loss came against Biden when, as noted, the former Delaware Senator was no longer on top of his game.  Trump has never topped an approval rating with a majority of Americans. At age 77, he also seems more tired and worn than during his first presidential run.  If Harris does prevail in November, it is doubtful that she will see her road to the White House as one of blessings and little actual skill or ability.  But she will probably not care that much.  She will be president number 47 and the first woman to hold that role.  Her legacy, however it came about, will be assured.  

AD Tippet is the founder and Publisher of the Conservative Historian. Aves has conducted extensive research in Political, Religious, Social, and Educational history across all eras and geographies. He has been writing and podcasting for over 12 years. In 2020, he published his first book, The Conservative Historian. He has degrees in history, education, and an MBA. @BelAves